Week 11: The Field Is Set

Believe it or not, we’re in the 2nd Half of the season.

Of course I always feel like Football Season goes by too fast.  But alas, here we are.

Before we get to it, for those that either don’t follow the game closely or could use a pointer when picking games, here are five points to keep in mind when making your picks.

1. Where is the game being played?

a) Keep in mind that football is a physical game.  I know that’s stating the obvious but it’s vital to factor that in when making your selection.  For example, the home team Wins the majority of Thursday Night matchups because players’ bodies are still sore from the Sunday game.  Travel on top of that makes the road team’s job tougher.

b) Travel also factors into the equation.  Another example is when a team on the West Coast travels to play a team on the East Coast.  The East Coasters have the advantage because in addition to the distance traveled, the West Coast team is dealing with the change in time zone.  That means a 1 o’clock game for us is a 10am Kickoff for them.  That tends to play a difference in the outcome.

c) Consider the Home Underdog.  When a clear favorite is upset, oftentimes the team pulling the upset benefits from playing the game in their home stadium.  That home cookin’, or mojo (or whatever you call it) can give a squad that extra omph to accomplish big things.

d) Is a team playing a string of Road Games? A team that has two (or in some cases, THREE) road games in a row tends to be far less competitive in that final road game, dramatically decreasing their chances of Winning

2. Which team is healthier?

Stating the obvious, football is very much a war of attrition.  Yes, injuries are a MAJOR part of the game.  Every year a handful of teams are so beset by injuries that it has a material effect on its ability to compete.  Or (more common) a given team loses key players that dramatically alter their effectiveness.

Therefore, all else being equal, the healthier team enjoys a significant advantage.

3. How are the teams playing?

Some teams start the season fast, then slowly fade away.  Other teams stumble out of the gate but come on strong down the stretch.  Still others catch a hot streak at certain points of the year.  How teams are playing when the two meet can directly determine the outcome.

For instance if one squad is struggling mightily, it would make sense to pick against them.  Conversely, another team might be playing at a high level – tough luck to their current opponent!  They may be catching that hot team at a bad time!

4. Who needs the game more?

All things being equal, the more desperate team Wins (as they need the game more).  There’s plenty of times a team in a must-Win situation simply has more motivation to do what it takes to prevail.  That sense of urgency can’t be faked.  And when you have it, you have it.

5. Who’s better?

Many times it’s pretty cut-and-dry: which team is better?  In a majority of cases the superior team Wins.  Simple as that.  And while there are plenty of unexpected happenings in a game, a week, and a season, most of the time the better team Wins.  Pretty straightforward.

 

By no means are these points absolute.

And there are plenty of circumstances where several of these factors come into play.  The trick is to figure out the extenuating factors that can swing a contest one way or the other.

Figure that part out and you’ll be in the Winner’s Circle more often than not.

Let’s get started.

This week we have 53 players shooting at a pot of $265.

Pot’s right.

(for those that don’t know: when wagering moolah, once the pot is considered “right” that means that the Winner can expect to gain that amount.  In other words, “the house” is guaranteeing that specific amount in the prize pool.  Regardless of what happens, if you Win you get that money – no excuses)

Here’s the field:

 

 

 

Alright, I’m done.  Thanks for playing this week.  Muchas gracias for putting us with this long ass post.  Enough talk, time for some football!

As always, enjoy the games and Good Luck.